Thursday, March 11, 2021

Viral Surveillance & Predicting Pandemics

     Many people have agonized over what could have prevented such a large scale disaster in terms of catching SARS-COV-2 before it spread across the United States and beyond. Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at Harvard, has a plan to create a "Global Immunological Observatory" for the future, so that blood samples of different individuals can be looked at and tested for all different types of antibodies. 

    This type of observatory would probably cost $100 million dollars to get off the ground but could have enormous implications for preventing the next pandemic. How the observatory would work would be that scientists could collect samples from people and look at how different viruses have generated antibodies. This would be different than wide scale testing in that antibodies take around one to two weeks to be generated after an infection. However, with new viruses this would allow for scientists to track the spread throughout the population perhaps before it gets out of control amongst the population. Mina thinks, for example, that if this "weather system" were put in place in 2019, New York City could have been shut down long before it was and many lives could have been saved. Likewise, doctors looked at the Zika virus' effects when babies were born with microcephaly months after moms were infected. A widespread immunologic survey could have allowed people to scope out this virus long before the birth of the babies with birth defects.

    Because the immune system provides historical evidence and a track record of the pathogens that which the body has seen before, this would be a great way to be on the look out for all sorts of viruses with pandemic potential. Mina has half a million plasma samples from the summer and are beginning to do large serological testing. Investigating these samples will provide information on the spread of Covid-19 on a week-by-week basis and explore how immunity to Covid-19 has developed over time. Mina hopes this movement will inspire others to start to look at plasma on a much bigger scale as a harbinger for future pandemics.

-Sammy


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/15/health/scientists-viruses.html?auth=login-email&login=email&searchResultPosition=1


    



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