One of the major themes of our influenza lectures was the epidemiology of flu outbreaks, the reliability of winter-specific epidemics, and the lack of understanding about why the virus emerges at certain times. It is immensely helpful to have a model of when and where certain viral diseases will appear so that we can be prepared and proactively act against an epidemic. About half of the global population is at risk of contracting dengue from their mosquito vectors according to the WHO, and international travel only complicates and exacerbates the spread of this flavivirus. Accordingly, a group of researchers constructed a “network” model tracking both the travel behavior of visitors who get infected and infection spread of local populations. The statistical model has enough power to predict the number of dengue importations. It also highlights the Puerto Rico to Florida travel route as the most prolific for dengue spread. A similar model has successfully predicted dengue spread in Australia for several years. After testing the accuracy of the global model, the researchers hope the same principles can be applied to other mosquito-borne diseases such as Chikungunya and Zika. While there is some skepticism about the applicability and validity of mathematical/statistical-based epidemiological studies, if we can improve our predictive powers through big data aggregation and analysis, the scientific community can get smarter about combating viral diseases.
~Avi Kaye
Article: Liebig, J., Jansen, C., Paini, D. et al. A global model for predicting the arrival of imported dengue infections. PLOS One, 2019; 14 (12). DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0225193
7 comments:
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