When faced with an outbreak of global proportions, it is easy to get overwhelmed. Clearly there is no shortage of rumors, conspiracy theories, and false news. But in such situations it is hard even to make sense of the "facts" because it is difficult to put those facts in the proper perspective or context. Without such a context, facts can be as confusing as rumors. One of the main ways in which a context can be provided is through comparing the current scenario or case of interest with other similar scenarios or cases which are not currently the news. And what makes such comparisons even more effective is when they include quantitative information.
Such a context is exactly what I encountered in a recent article by the New York Times.1 The article includes a chart that characterizes the Corona virus against the background of other well-known (or well publicized) outbreaks (Fig. 1). The chart has two axes. The horizontal axis represents the average number of people who can be infected by a single sick individual. The range of the horizontal axis is 0 to 15, with MERS being the lowest (~0.7 infections per person) and Measles the highest (15 infections per person). The vertical axis represents the mortality rate, which starts from 0 (with common cold and Chickenpox) and goes as high as 70% (with Bird flu). Ebola, for instance, is rated at 50% fatality rate. Within this chart, currently the coronavirus occupies a relatively large area with an estimated transmission rate of 1.5 to 3.5 (persons infected by a single sick person) and the mortality rate estimate of 0.1% to 3%. The wide range is due to the evolving nature of the situation and is expected to narrow down as more data and statistics become available.
Apart from putting the current outbreak in perspective, the advantage of this chart is that it quantifies the risk and provides a more accurate and nuanced picture of viral infectious epidemics. As such, it provides a valuable counter balance to the massive mixture of qualitative and often emotionally charged forms of news that we encounter on a daily basis.
~~ Moe Azadeh
1. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html
Such a context is exactly what I encountered in a recent article by the New York Times.1 The article includes a chart that characterizes the Corona virus against the background of other well-known (or well publicized) outbreaks (Fig. 1). The chart has two axes. The horizontal axis represents the average number of people who can be infected by a single sick individual. The range of the horizontal axis is 0 to 15, with MERS being the lowest (~0.7 infections per person) and Measles the highest (15 infections per person). The vertical axis represents the mortality rate, which starts from 0 (with common cold and Chickenpox) and goes as high as 70% (with Bird flu). Ebola, for instance, is rated at 50% fatality rate. Within this chart, currently the coronavirus occupies a relatively large area with an estimated transmission rate of 1.5 to 3.5 (persons infected by a single sick person) and the mortality rate estimate of 0.1% to 3%. The wide range is due to the evolving nature of the situation and is expected to narrow down as more data and statistics become available.
Apart from putting the current outbreak in perspective, the advantage of this chart is that it quantifies the risk and provides a more accurate and nuanced picture of viral infectious epidemics. As such, it provides a valuable counter balance to the massive mixture of qualitative and often emotionally charged forms of news that we encounter on a daily basis.
~~ Moe Azadeh
1. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html
5 comments:
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