Despite herculean human efforts, it may be weather that stops the virus

History tends to repeat itself and so it may be in the case of the Novel Coronavirus, which has already infected more people worldwide that its cousin, the SARS virus, when the weather in China warms in late spring.1 According to epidemiology statistics, the infection rate for both SARS and more common influenza virus strains subsides as the weather improves (the peak month for new infections is usually February). While the frenzied efforts to identify, map, contain and eradicate the Novel Corona virus will likely continue apace or intensify in the coming weeks, the hard lesson for human kind may be that, despite our best efforts, things completely out of our control such as higher temperatures and higher humidity may be far more effective than the weapons in our man-made disease fighting arsenal. Obviously, that reality has far reaching implications if, as some scientists suspect, human interaction with life threatening viruses increases as the population expands. Of course, that is not to say that current measures—quarantines, contact tracing and travel bans—are not good emergency efforts to control the spread of the virus but, by their very nature, they are and must be temporary, especially where, as here, the virus has already spread on such a global scale.

Scientists in Hong Kong have completed studies regarding the response of the SARS virus, another coronavirus that had spread convulsively during the winter of 2003, to climate effects such as temperature and humidity. The research, conducted at Hong Kong University by Professors Malik Peiris and Seto Wing Hong, demonstrates that the SARS virus is able to survive much longer at lower temperatures and humidity. Interestingly, the research team linked its observations to the anomalously low incidence of SARS in humid Southeast Asian countries and to its virulence in locations where air conditioning keeps temperature low and the air dry, such as Hong Kong.

As it appears that the Novel Coronavirus is spread from human to human through the same channels as influenza, these same environmental factors (cold weather) compel human behaviors (long periods of time indoors in close contact with other humans) that may enhance the spread of the virus.

The weather is a big deal. By comparison, and as the past weeks have shown, human tools to combat the spread of an infectious virus seem to have limited efficacy. Even with the panic and attention being lavished on this coronavirus, and the availability of almost instantaneous updates around the world, human ability to control the virus’ spread seems disturbingly limited. Waiting for the weather could be a costly alternative in terms of human life and damage to world economies.

~~ David M. Walsh

1: Somani, J., and Tambyah, P., “Hot and humid weather may end the Novel Coronavirus." NUS News, 07 February 2020. https://news.nus.edu.sg/research/hot-and-humid-weather-may- end-novel-coronavirus. Accessed on 08 February 2020.