China’s CDC finally provides insight into who is most impacted by Covid-19 virus

The Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) have been working at a furious pace to collect and interpret preliminary data about the rapid spread of Covid-19 disease in China and elsewhere. The CCDC studied some 72,000 confirmed and suspected cases of Covid-19 virus disease. As described in a CNN article published on February 19 , many of 1 The CCDC conclusions and observations, as reported in a CNN article published on February 19, appear to track expectations, assumptions and speculation made through press reports and other scientific sources during the past several weeks as the virus gained a foothold and quickly evolved into worldwide menace.

The headlines include a preliminary (and expected) determination that the new virus is far more contagious that either MERS or SARS, that it is likely less fatal (2% fatality rate v. 35% and 9.6%,respectively) and, undoubtedly as a result of its more elevated contagiousness, is a much larger health event (with more than 75,000 infected in China, and more than 2,000 deaths) than either of the other two viral outbreaks. Importantly, at least according to one physician quoted in the CNN article, Anthony Fauci, M.D., the director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Disease, the current fatality percentage is likely overstated because it is probable that many of the Covid-19 viral infections have not been (and may never be) reported—especially those infections where the patient is asymptomatic. He posits that, once those and other currently unconfirmed infections are considered, the denominator in the equation (number of fatalities over number of infections) will increase and the percentage of fatalities will necessarily decline. Dr. Fauci believes that the fatality rate will drop below 2 % once all of the infections that can be counted are. Notably, as reported by CNN, the CCDC report did not contain any predictions about the expected course of the virus or the epidemic.

The CCDC report also provides bona fide (but crude) analyses that will assist in assessing the virulence of the virus by providing statistical data that show who is succumbing to the virus. As with the flu virus, the Covid-19 virus seems to be causing the greatest damage among the aged and those with pre-existing— especially cardiac—conditions. The fatality rate for those over age 80 is almost 15%; it is 10% for those with cardiac conditions. This mortality analysis is consistent with medical and other scientific suspicions as reported in the press, and correlates with previous guidance from Chinese officials suggesting that, for most of those infected, the symptoms of the illness are mild. Unlike the flu virus, though, Covid-19 does not seem to disproportionately impact infants and young children. This newly released information has been a missing element in scientists’ and researchers’ analysis of the true risk of this virus.

~~ David M. Walsh

Griffith, J., and Gans, N., “Chinese CDC finds Covid-19 virus to be more contagious than 1 SARS or MERS—CNN”. CNN. Cable News Network, n.d., 19 February 2020. https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/19/health/coronavirus-china-sars-mers-intl-hnk/index.html