Information Spreads and Evolves Like a Virus

One of the many things we’ve learned from the COVID-19 epidemic is that a piece of information can take hold, evolve and spread like a virus. While mathematical epidemiological models are far from perfect, they can still provide insight into the patterns and extent of proliferation. Recently, a team of scientists attempted to predict the spread of “viral” elements. What they found is that whether you are looking at a virus or misinformation, the evolution of it significantly impacts how much it proliferates. Take coronavirus coverage as an example. On March 5, 2020, CNN had to put out an article addressing common COVID-19 rumors that ‘evolved’ and ‘spread’ including: The virus was man-made, homemade remedies can prevent or cure it, you NEED to get a mask for protection, the virus can pass through the mail, and finally, the virus will kill you. When taking into account how this information changes, a mathematical model does surprisingly well predicting its expansion. And the simulation mirrors the propagation of evolving viral diseases. Of course, models will never be 100% accurate, but with a more realistic simulation that accounts for evolution, epidemiologists can get a better idea of the possible extent of an epidemic.

~Avi Kaye

Mathematical Model Article: Eletreby et al. The effects of evolutionary adaptations on spreading processes in complex networks. PNAS, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1918529117 

CNN Article: Kaur, M. Coronavirus myths and misinformation, debunked. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/health/debunking-coronavirus-myths-trnd/index.html