Who wouldn’t want to know “how infectious is it?” about a scary new infectious disease? If someone comes down with it in Las Vegas today, am I likely to catch it in San Francisco tomorrow?
Epidemiologists have this question dialed in. They call it “R0” (“R-zero”), which is the average number of secondary infections produced by an infected individual in an otherwise susceptible host population.
R0 is a really key number. It determines whether a pathogen can persist in a host population.
Here’s the really key point to understand:
When R0 is less than 1, on average each infectious individual infects less than one other individual, and the pathogen will die out in the population.
In contrast, when R0 exceeds 1 there is an exponential rise in the number of cases over time, and an epidemic results.
Not sure you’ve got it? I’ll make an analogy. How many babies do humans need to produce, on average, to make sure the population doesn’t grow or shrink? This number would be a kind of R0=1. Well, the number is intuitive: it takes a male and female to reproduce, so that’s two in the parent generation, so, if the population is to stay steady, it stands to easy reason that they should produce two children who themselves are able to reproduce. Since some of their offspring will die before reproducing, they in fact need to produce a bit more than 2… in fact, it was 2.33 children per woman in 2003.
~~ Robert Carr
Epidemiologists have this question dialed in. They call it “R0” (“R-zero”), which is the average number of secondary infections produced by an infected individual in an otherwise susceptible host population.
R0 is a really key number. It determines whether a pathogen can persist in a host population.
Here’s the really key point to understand:
When R0 is less than 1, on average each infectious individual infects less than one other individual, and the pathogen will die out in the population.
In contrast, when R0 exceeds 1 there is an exponential rise in the number of cases over time, and an epidemic results.
Not sure you’ve got it? I’ll make an analogy. How many babies do humans need to produce, on average, to make sure the population doesn’t grow or shrink? This number would be a kind of R0=1. Well, the number is intuitive: it takes a male and female to reproduce, so that’s two in the parent generation, so, if the population is to stay steady, it stands to easy reason that they should produce two children who themselves are able to reproduce. Since some of their offspring will die before reproducing, they in fact need to produce a bit more than 2… in fact, it was 2.33 children per woman in 2003.
~~ Robert Carr
14 comments:
Herpes simplex viruses -- more commonly known as herpes -- are categorized into two types: herpes type 1 (HSV-1, or oral herpes) and herpes type 2 (HSV-2, or genital herpes). Most commonly, herpes type 1 causes sores around the mouth and lips (sometimes called fever blisters or cold sores). HSV-1 can cause genital herpes, but most cases of genital herpes are caused by herpes type 2. In HSV-2, the infected person may have sores around the genitals or rectum. Although HSV-2 sores may occur in other locations,don't waste more time get connected with Dr AZIBA for herbal medicine to get rid of HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUSES via Email: PRIESTAZIBASOLUTIONCENTER@GMAIL.COM or Via WhatsApp +2348100368288.
My mouth is short of words, i am so happy because Dr Obela has healed me from Herpes which i have been suffering from the past 5years now, i have spend a lot when getting drugs from the hospital to keep me healthy, i have tried all means in life to always become herpes virus negative one day, but there was no answer until i found Dr Obela the parish of African who provide me some healing herbs that i uses , now i am glad telling everyone that i am now Herpes Negative, i am very happy, thank you Dr Obela for helping my life comes back newly without any form of crisis, may the good lord that i serve blessed you Dr Obela and equip you to the higher grade for healing my life. i am so amazed. so i will announced to everyone in this whole world that is Herpes Virus positive to please follow my advice and get healed on time, because we all knows that Herpes disease is a deadly type, contact Dr Obela for your Herpes healing herbs today at: drobelaspellhome@gmail.com He will be always happy to assist you online and ensure you get healed on time, contact Dr Obela today for your healing herbs immediately, you can also add him on whatsApp +2348120189503............ THANKS TO DR OBELA
Hello everyone reading this testimony. I have been rejected by my husband after three(3) years of marriage just because another woman had a spell on him and he left me and the kid to suffer. One day when I was reading through the web, I saw a post on how this spell caster Dr irosi have help a woman to get back her husband and I gave him a reply to his address and he told me that a woman had a spell on my husband and he told me that he will help me and after 3 days that I will have my husband back. I believed him and today I am glad to let you all know that this spell caster have the power to bring lovers back because I am now happy with my husband. Thanks for His great work here is his email: drirosisolutioncenter@gmail.com Or call his number +2348118829771 Contact Dr irosi and get your relationship problem solved.
i already gave up on ever getting cured of HSV2 because i have try many treatment none of them work out for me i have go to different hospital they always tell me same thing there is no cure for herpes when i came across a post about Dr Goodwin, in the net from a lady called Angela i contacted him and he reassured me with him herbal medicine which i took according to the way he instructed, that how i was cured. I doubted at first because i have been to a whole lot of reputable doctors, tried a lot of medicines but none was able to cure me. so i decided to listen to him and he commenced treatment, and under two weeks i was totally fee from #Herpes. i want to say a very big thank you to DR godwin for what he has done in my life. feel free to leave him a message on email drgodwinsolutionhome@gmail.com and also WhatsApp him +2348054615060..
He can still be able to help you with this herbs medicine:
1...ALS CURE/DIABETES CURE/EPILESY/HPV
i already gave up on ever getting cured of HSV2 because i have try many treatment none of them work out for me i have go to different hospital they always tell me same thing there is no cure for herpes when i came across a post about Dr Goodwin, in the net from a lady called Angela i contacted him and he reassured me with him herbal medicine which i took according to the way he instructed, that how i was cured. I doubted at first because i have been to a whole lot of reputable doctors, tried a lot of medicines but none was able to cure me. so i decided to listen to him and he commenced treatment, and under two weeks i was totally fee from #Herpes. i want to say a very big thank you to DR godwin for what he has done in my life. feel free to leave him a message on email drgodwinsolutionhome@gmail.com and also WhatsApp him +2348054615060..
He can still be able to help you with this herbs medicine:
1...ALS CURE/DIABETES CURE/EPILESY/HPV
Great Mother is Real... I am Aisha Kun and i want to testify about Great Mother how she cured me of hiv aids. I was diagnosed of this disease some time ago and i was worried. when i was searching the internet looking for a cure, i came across some testimonies of Great Mother how she has helped a lot of people and i decided to contact her on her info and explained to her. She laughed and told me that she will help me and i was surprised. She sent me the cure and it was a spiritual holy oil and water which is more than a medicine. She directed me on how to take it and i did. I took the cure for 3 weeks and i went to the doctor for check up and to my greatest surprise the disease was no longer in my system. I am so glad and i want to thank Great Mother for helping me. Contact her now on her email: Greatmotherofsolutiontemple1@yahoo.com you can also reach her on her whatsapp number +17025514367. If you have any disease, she can help you. Contact her now
Great Mother is Real... I am Aisha Kun and i want to testify about Great Mother how she cured me of hiv aids. I was diagnosed of this disease some time ago and i was worried. when i was searching the internet looking for a cure, i came across some testimonies of Great Mother how she has helped a lot of people and i decided to contact her on her info and explained to her. She laughed and told me that she will help me and i was surprised. She sent me the cure and it was a spiritual holy oil and water which is more than a medicine. She directed me on how to take it and i did. I took the cure for 3 weeks and i went to the doctor for check up and to my greatest surprise the disease was no longer in my system. I am so glad and i want to thank Great Mother for helping me. Contact her now on her email: Greatmotherofsolutiontemple1@yahoo.com you can also reach her on her whatsapp number +17025514367. If you have any disease, she can help you. Contact her now
HELLO EVERYONEI’M SO GRATEFUL TO DR. ONUWA FOR CURING ME COMPLETELY FROM HERPES VIRUS . I WAS TOLD I HAVE HERPES IN 2011, I HAVE BEEN TAKING DIFFERENT KINDS OF MEDICATION STILL YET NO IMPROVEMENT UNTIL I SAW TESTIMONIES OF DR. ONUWA CURING HERPES, DIABETES, HIV AND OTHER DISEASE I WAS SKEPTICAL ABOUT CONTACTING HIM BUT I ALSO KNEW THE IMPORTANCE OF HERBAL MEDICINE, I MADE UP MY MIND AND CONTACTED HIM WE TALKED ON PHONE AND HE PREPARED AND GAVE ME MEDICINE WHICH I TOOK ACCORDING TO HIS DOSAGE INFORMATION. NOW I’M SO HAPPY I’M CURED FROM HERPES MY HEART IS SO FILLED WITH JOY, THANK YOU SO MUCH DR. ONUWA . IF YOU ARE READING THIS AND YOU HAVE HERPES OR ANY KIND OF DISEASE CONTACT HIM TODAY EMAIL:DRONUWA2@GMAIL.COM .. HE CURE LISTED DISEASES CANCER HIV ALS EX BACK JOB OPPORTUNITY HEPATITIS A AND B DIABETIC. ETC
MUST READ: HOW I GET CURE OF HERPES WITH HERBAL MEDICINE!
I was diagnosed of Herpes disease in 2013 and I have tried all I can to get cured but all to no avail, my life was gradually coming to an end, until i saw a post in a health forum about a herbal doctor from Africa who prepares herbal remedy to cure all kind of diseases including Herpes disease, at first i doubted if it was real but with much pressure i decided to give it a try, when i contact this herbal doctor via his email, he prepared an a herbal remedy and sent it to me via courier service, when i received this herbal remedy, i called him and he gave me step by step instructions on how to apply it, After i applied it as instructed, i was cured of this deadly disease within 14days of usage, I am now free from the deadly disease, all thanks to Dr Lucky. email drluckyherbalcure@gmail.com or inbox him on whatapp +2348154637647
Good luck…
I’m here to testify about what DR. ISIBOR did for me. I have been suffering from (GENITAL HERPES VIRUS) disease for the past 3 years and had constant pain and inching, especially in my private part. During the first year, I had faith in God that i would be cured someday.This disease started circulating all over my body and I have been taking treatment from my doctor, few weeks ago I came across a testimony of Rose Smith on the internet testifying about a Man called DR. ISIBOR on how he cured her from 7 years HSV 2. And she also gave the email address of this man, advise anybody to contact him for help on any kind of diseases that he would be of help, so I emailed him telling him about my (HSV 2) he told me not to worry that I was going to be cured!! Well, I never doubted him I have faith he can cure me too,, DR. ISIBOR prepared and sent me Healing Oil, Soap, roots and herbs which I took. In the first one week, I started experiencing changes all over me, after four weeks of using his Roots/ Herbs, Oil and Soap, I was totally cured. no more inching , pain on me anymore as DR. ISIBOR assured me. After some time I went to my doctor to do another test behold the result came out negative. So friends my advise is if you have such disease or know anyone who suffers from it or any other disease like HPV, HIV, ALS, CANCER etc. you can contact DR. ISIBOR for help via email} drisiborspellhome@gmail.com or call +2348107855231
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Hello everybody, I just want to give this great testimony to the whole public about a great man who helped me out of a serious illness. I have had HSV-1 AND HSV-2 VIRUS for good 2 years now and I was almost going to the end of my life due to the illness. All I have in my mind is, let me just give up because life is not interesting for me any longer and i also pray that God should accept my soul when ever I’m gone luckily for me, my kid sister run to me that she found a doctor in the INTERNET who can cure HSV-1 AND HSV-2 VIRUS. She helped me out with everything, the man asked for my details so he can prepare herbal medicine for me. After he was done consulting on my details he told me how my medicine will be prepare, after he was done preparing my medicine he sent me my medication and after using it for 7 days i later started noticing something different in my blood so I went for my HSV-1 AND HSV-2 VIRUS test and I was tested Negative, I’m so happy that I can say I’m not patient of HSV-1 AND HSV-2 anymore. If you have HSV-1 AND HSV-2 or any sickness,HIV/AID,HPV,CANCER,HEPATITS B DIABETITS ALS,PENIS ENLARGEMNT please for your safety, contact DR.VADI VIA email address (doctorvadi@yahoo.com) or whats APP number +2348074133083
I am so Happy to be writing this article in here, i am here to explore blogs forum about the wonderful and most safe cure for HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS.I was positive to the Virus called HERPES and i lost hope completely because i was rejected even by my closet friends. i searched online to know and inquire about cure for HERPES and i saw testimony about DR Ebhota online on how he cured so many persons from Herpes Disease so i decided to contact the great herbalist because i know that nature has the power to heal everything. i contacted him to know how he can help me and he told me never to worry that he will help me with the natural herbs from God! after 2 days of contacting him, he told me that the cure has been ready and he sent it to me via FEDEX or DHL and it got to me after 4 days! i used the medicine as he instructed me (MORNING and EVENING) and i was cured! its really like a dream but i'm so happy! that's the reason i decided to also add more comment of Him so that more people can be saved just like me! and if you need his help,contact his Email: (drebhotasoltion@gmail.com) You can contact him on WhatsApp +2348089535482 He also have the herb to cure difference cure for any sickness (1) HERPES,
(2) DIABETES,
(3) HIV&AIDS,
(4) URINARY TRACT INFECTION,
(5) HEPATITIS B,
(6) IMPOTENCE,
(7) BARENESS/INFERTILITY
(8) DIARRHEA
(9) ASTHMA..
Am short of words for the amazing work you perform to helped me cure my herpesvirus in just 2weeks of using your herbal formula am so sorry I doubted at the beginning, I was scared because I was scammed twice before I meant you, knowing what i am consuming now I know your herbal formula is safe and effective just only two weeks of drinking the herbs my outbreak and other symtoms vanish, I went to the doctor and did test the results was supper, I will keep thanking you more and more, today I am heathy and totally cured with your herbs,
Thanks DR DOHGO
you can contact him via
Via whatsapp: (+2347062142293)
I advice you shouldn't hesitate. He's great.
Email (doctordohgo@gmail.com)
Happiness is all i see now big thanks to Dr. Ubarlo from (India), I never thought that I will live on earth before the year runs out. I have been suffering from a deadly disease herpes Virus for the past 2 years now; I had spent a lot of money going from one place to another, hospitals have been my home every day. Constant checks have been my hobby not until this blessed day, I was searching through the Internet, I saw a testimony on how Dr. Ubarlo. from (India) helped someone in curing his herpes Virus . quickly I copied his Whatsapp Contact: +2348119508814 just to give him a test I spoke to him, he asked me to do some certain things which I did,he told me that he is going to provide the herbal cure to me, which he did, then he asked me to go for medical checkup after some days after using the herbal medication, I was free from the deadly disease, he only asked me to post the testimony through the whole world, faithfully am doing it now, please brothers and sisters, he is great, I owe him in return. if you are having a similar problem just contact him by Email: at drubarlohome@gmail.com whatsapp him on +2348119508814 HIS HAVE THE CURE TO THIS FOLLOWING DEADLY DISEASE [1] Ischemic heart disease [2] Cerebrovascular disease [3] Lower respiratory infections [4] Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [5] Diarrhea diseases [6] Trachea, bronchus, lung cancers [7] Tuberculosis [8] Diabetes mellifluous [9] Hypertension heart disease [10] HIV/AIDS
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