A Perfect Storm? The Timing of the 2019-nCoV Virus (Wuhan coronavirus)

Saturday January 25, 2020 is Chinese New Year. The weeks prior (i.e. now) and after see the largest wave of people movement in world history. Chinese government estimates that Chinese people will take three billion trips to visit families via trains, planes, automobiles, and boats (2). Wuhan, a city with a population of 11 million is a major transportation hub. The city sits at the convergence of the Yangtze River and Han River. The central location of Wuhan, the timing of Chinese New Year, and bustling population make the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak an historical event in the making. It will also test the control system Chinese government put in place since the SAR epidemic.

On the morning of Wednesday January 22 at 10:00 am, China’s State Council (i.e. the Chinese government) held its first press briefing since the first patient was admitted to the hospital on December 8, 2019 (1). The next day, January 23, Wuhan, a city bigger than Belgium in population and London in area, is in lock down (4). In an effort to control the outbreak, the officials have asked people not to leave the city and not to come to the city. The government also issued the “Quick Guide to Diagnosis and Treatment of New Coronavirus Pneumonia 新型冠状病毒肺炎诊疗快速指南” (3).

The “Quick Guide” identifies the reservoir of the virus as bat. “经过病毒序列比对分析，推测新型冠状病毒病的自然宿主可能是蝙蝠。在从蝙蝠到人的传染过程中很可能存在未知的中间宿主媒介。根据对SARS-CoV和MERS-CoV的研究，冠状病毒对热敏感，保持56℃30分钟、乙醚、75%乙醇、含氯消毒剂、过氧乙酸和氯仿等脂溶剂均可有效灭活病毒。氯己定不能有效灭活病毒。From the result of viral sequencing, it is believed bat is the natural host. There might be other vectors between bat and human. Based on previous studies of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, Coronavirus is sensitive to heat. It is already known that chlorhexidine does not inactive the virus. Lipid solvent of diethyl ether, 75% ethanol, chlorine disinfectant, peracetic acid, chloroform kept at 56℃ for 30 minutes can effectively inactive the virus” (3).

~~ You Jia Zhu

1. 《专家解读不明原因的病毒性肺炎最新通报》”Experts Explain the Latest Viral Pneumonia in Wuhan”, People.cn, January 11, 2020. (in Chinese)

2. 《30亿人次出行！2020年春运大幕开启》“3 Billion Trips! 2020 Chun Yun Begins”, www.gov.cn, January 10, 2020. (in Chinese)

3.  《新型冠状病毒肺炎诊疗快速指南》出炉 “ ‘Quick guide to diagnosis and treatment of new coronavirus pneumonia’ Released”, bjnews.com.cnhttp://bjnews.com.cn/, January 23, 2020. (in Chinese)

4.  Cissy Zhou, “China coronavirus: as travel ban is issued for Wuhan, many in city rush to escape,” South China Morning Post, January 23, 2020.