I read an article titled “Epidemiology meets evolutionary
ecology” a few weeks ago, but have not had a chance to fully digest it. I think
it’s potentially useful to think about viruses this way so I’m going to write
down a few points that I find interesting. Probably the most important point that this
paper makes is the definition of virulence, or “the extent of parasite-induced
reduction in host fitness.” (Although it still seems odd to me that virulence
is defined based on the host rather than the parasite itself....)
1. Optimal Virulence
-Viruses face a tradeoff between host survival and
fecundity. Hosts face a tradeoff between the cost of resistance and the risk of
infection.
-Estimates of R0 generally do not take into account vertical
transmission or multiple infections.
2. Transmission
Patterns
-Vertical transmission tends to reduce virulence compared to
horizontal transmission because vertical transmission depends on host survival
and reproduction. But vertical transmission and horizontal transmission are
usually related so it’s difficult to consider these transmission patterns
individually.
3. Spatial structuring
of disease transmission and dispersal mechanism
-Recent models that include spatial structuring tend to
predict lower virulence than those that don’t.
4. Host heterogeneity
-A host parasite that is optimally adapted to get around one
host’s immune system and not another, host heterogeneity selects for lower
virulence.
-The relationship between parasite virulence and host
resistance is more complex than was originally assumed.
5. Competition strains
and within-host dynamics
-Viral strains in the same host are competing to a limited
amount of resources, which leads to selection for greater virulence.
-Kin selection between related strains within one host is
predicted to reduce virulence.
6. Phylogenetic
analysis
-Phylogenetic analysis is useful in providing information
about emerging strains
7. Public Health
Policy
-Evolutionary ecology should be taken into account when
implementing public health interventions.
8. Sex and Virulence
-It is thought
that sex in parasites increases virulence and sex in hosts reduces virulence.
Phew! That just made my brain hurt a little bit more. And I
just discovered that there’s a great table in this article, which distills down
the major points better than I just did. (There’s a screen shot below, but you
should check out the original!) Also, the author makes the point that “the
misconception that parasites will ultimately evolve towards avirulence has only
been dispelled gradually from the medical literature.” (Proof of these “misconceptions” prevalence can be found in the abstract of the paper that Emi sent out on
HIV.)
By Olivia
References:
Galvani, A. “Epidemiology meets evolutionary ecology.” Trends in Ecology and Evolution Mar.
2003. Vol. 18(3): 132-139.
